Any chance of COE for bike to go down?

[kzone]

That's what the Govt wants you to think, work hard, save, so life will be better.

 

Then they increase prices, there's no limit to how high they can increase, there is a limit to how long you can go without sleeping.

 

IMO, work hard for a time, then make the money work for you.

 

agree... wat u doing? I dunnoe where to start

[tniki]

I do not think COE for bikes will be dropping drastically for the next 2 years

[kzone]

I do not think COE for bikes will be dropping drastically for the next 2 years

 

going down soon... before year end shud be 5kish

[filtered]

going down soon... before year end shud be 5kish

 

how do you know?

[kaiq]

Cos election coming?

[filtered]

they increased car quota by quite a bit, but bike quota by very little nia

[kzone]

how do you know?

 

the number of bids (demand) has been going down and supply will be increased. so there will be a new equilibrium price which is lower.

 

How much lower is subjective... but if u look at past bids, about 30 bidders made the price jump fm 4.5k to 6.5k. and there will be 100 more COEs for the next 3 months. So my guestimate is that over the next 2 months, it will be drop to around 5k

[kzone]

Cos election coming?

 

if u look at past elections, it has no impact to COE price. The increasing trend before the election continues

[filtered]

the number of bids (demand) has been going down and supply will be increased. so there will be a new equilibrium price which is lower.

 

How much lower is subjective... but if u look at past bids, about 30 bidders made the price jump fm 4.5k to 6.5k. and there will be 100 more COEs for the next 3 months. So my guestimate is that over the next 2 months, it will be drop to around 5k

 

Then again, pent-up demand may drive the price back up again, eg those that have been holding back cos COE at 6k+ levels too high, or those wanting to renew COE.

So may end up back to square one....lol

[kzone]

Then again, pent-up demand may drive the price back up again, eg those that have been holding back cos COE at 6k+ levels too high, or those wanting to renew COE.

So may end up back to square one....lol

 

those that are ok at 6k+ would have already gone in. Now price has somewhat stabilise, number of bids reducing over the past months, and additional COE coming in. All indicating COE to come down. But let's wait n see if it goes that way. U can quote this and come back again in Oct.

[Angry]

There will be an extra 57 COEs on offer each month for the motorcycle category start on August.......

[kzone]

those that are ok at 6k+ would have already gone in. Now price has somewhat stabilise, number of bids reducing over the past months, and additional COE coming in. All indicating COE to come down. But let's wait n see if it goes that way. U can quote this and come back again in Oct.

 

The downtrend has started. Motorcycle premiums closed at S$6,312, down from S$6,508 in the last exercise.

 

add: and more importantly number of bids going down. Cant wait for the higher supply of coe next month!!!

[hachi]

Estimate 5k near round...

[zulu4]

don't think it will come down la... they are shunting supply from motorcycle to open cat

[hachi]

Now 6.5k....Nv under estimate the power of leveraging.

[kzone]

y the big increase ah? Any new bikes or promo recently?

[aimnfire]

not surprise it goes up this time

 

unused 29 COE was roll over from last bidding

the recent total COE was 329

guess the original quota for the recent ex was actually 300 coe

[Orleng]

What the hey. Ok, as I've posted here http://www.singaporebikes.com/forums/showthread.php/413694-Current-COE-system-hurts-motorcyclists-too?p=8358015&viewfull=1#post8358015

 

and

 

http://www.singaporebikes.com/forums/showthread.php/413694-Current-COE-system-hurts-motorcyclists-too?p=8358015&viewfull=1#post8358015

 

The shops will keep bidding up. When COE goes down, they have to push the COE back up, else they won't be able to offload their more expensive "old" COEs.

 

Here, you can find out what the monthly Quota is. To cut a long story short : 654 per month, till Jan.

http://www.lta.gov.sg/data/apps/news/press/2015/20151015_COEQuotaNov15-Jan16.pdf

 

Here, you can view the % of bids in roughly what price range. Obviously, the lowest successful bid is what the QP is. All successful bids are above the QP, this chart shows by what %higher than the QP and roughly how many bids are in each price range.

 

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/COE_Successful_Bids_2015.pdf

 

And here is the QP for all the COE bidding exercises this month.

 

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/COE_Result_2015.pdf

 

For s***s and giggles, I did some crunching for Oct 2nd bidding and Nov 1st bidding (The previous COE price, not the current one just out)

 

COE Quota per month till Jan 2016, from Nov 2015. Divide the monthly quota by 2 to get the per exercise quota (There are 2 bidding exercises per month). Slight diff in numbers, I can't explain, but they're in the ballpark

Estimate calculated 327/exercise vs real 329/exercise.

http://i.imgur.com/IIqJ5gK.jpg

 

Here's the QP from Aug to Nov 2015.

http://i.imgur.com/Pu9LhM6.jpg

Left side of the two QP is the 1st bid of the month. Right side is 2nd bid of the month. Nov 2015 2nd bidding exercise not yet updated inside their database.

 

Here's the bidding prices and number of bids in each price range for Oct 2nd bidding exercise. I am doing a quick and dirty calculation of the number of bids hence the rounding error, as well as the price range, but you get the rough idea.

http://i.imgur.com/bBnlMEM.jpg

172 bids between $6 302 to $6 617.

 

 

Here's the same for Nov 1st bidding exercise (not the recent one)

http://i.imgur.com/9eBON9C.jpg

165 bids between $5 912 to $6 799.

 

So even though the previous exercise was $5 912, still a large number was bidding up to a higher price range as compared to Oct 2nd bidding. Just that in Oct the bulk of the bids were all high. Nov 1st bid obviously there was some slackening in bid prices for some reason or another.

 

Either way, I'm not a stats/math student/grad. Someone with more experience may be able to make more of these numbers than I can. All I can say is that it looks like there's a few big players chunking the prices.

[teambhp]

Very sad. Why always up n up

 

Sent from my E2353 using Tapatalk

[blacksilver]

Money talks loudest here in SG, lor...

[MR BIKER]

oRLENG : good observation "Either way, I'm not a stats/math student/grad. Someone with more experience may be able to make more of these numbers than I can. All I can say is that it looks like there's a few big players chunking the prices." as I HAVE ALWAYS said THESE BIG PLAYERS ARE SHOP COMPANIIES ,

[aimnfire]

same as cars

 

rumours that certain big player hogging it

[hachi]

Is a fact, but people fuel it....

[kzone]

how does it matter?

[whiteo83]

When there's an economic crisis, coe price usually come down steep. Happened once in 2003.

 

oh really? good news then. likely one in the next 2 years with the oil situation now.

 

Think depends on Car COE price. If it dips then the ah seah kias might consider car over bike.

 

now every day so many young kids take TP (40 everyday?) if the demand keeps growing the price will too.