Caution buying used bikes

[mechwira]

At below 10 years old bike, and applying to my above said formulae, the % of depreciation are closer when comparing european bikes and jap bikes. the difference widen with age.

 

because you use the same formula.

 

if we agree the formula may not apply equally when market demand is not the same, we have to refer to evidence in the form of successfully sold secondhand models. that is a closer indication of depreciation.

 

like you said, % depreciation does not have a modelled fixed percentage. its market demand. and market demand is prices of successfully sold bikes.

[mechwira]

Some jap bikes do depreciate crazily fast too, like GSXR because suzuki completely abandons it, so I guess its hard to generalise which origin bikes depreciates faster. But a ducati 916 and RS250 is definitely noway as common as a CBR400RRR, RVF, and old spec1/2. You see there are more japanese bike that depreciates slow than europe bikes that depreciates slow.

 

i think thats because Duc 916 last time was already rare to begin with, less rich people twenty years ago. and RS250, heck thats a 2-stroker commonly abused, no surprises it doesnt last.

 

but well maybe i am guilty of generalizing. ultimately though, i still think that prices of successfully sold bikes is the indicator, not rarity. and i'd continue thinking so unless someone shows me that indeed in general conti bikes sell for same or lower % when compared to jap, for

[guangwei]

Dep is around 3600 per yr for his bike .I have no idea how much a new one cost. If a new one cost 33000, then it's obvious the seller is overpricing his bike.

 

depreciate is not fixed 3600 per year. that is a very simple calculation. lol

even if you are just applying fundamental generalising

 

like i said, depreciation goes slower. new bikes depreciate faster because it is losing its status as a new bike. old bike depreciates slower because the old bikes is just another similar old bike from 8 to 9 years old.

[teambhp]

Exactly, avoid bikeshops because they are profit driven and they would not know the definition of 'paiseh' and 'feeling of guilt' after working in one of the darkest industry in SG for so many years(according to CASE, motorcycle dealer industry receive one of the highest complaints, just below the likes of mobile phone industry and cars industry)

 

Can be many reasons why they wanna sell, could be because they are sick of a persistence prob, but trust me, SG people are generally too thin skinned to do this unless they are profit driven to do something like bikeshop, direct owners may makes plenty of effort to hide the prob, or they would rather just reveal it to you in fear of being expose by you. Because it would be massively paiseh and I can vouch for you SGrean are extremely afraid of paiseh. In addition, because most SG non mechanic industry people are dumb nuts in manual labour, mechanics works, even qualified engineer knows nuts, as most of us dont even have a own garages to experiment even the most basic step of changing engine oil, so its near mission impossible if they want to DIY to hide a very complex problem. This is not the case for bikeshop. I can tell you the most common reason people like to use for performance bike, is that they want to tone down and downgrade as performance litre bikes are not feasible in SG. They wanna quit the games bike.

 

 

Some owner claims that, but if I sell the bike I wont say that, i'd reveal my bike flaws on the spot to the best of my knowledge. Your quite stupid if u believe an old bike is perfect flawless conditions. Its still better some of my bikeshop experience, they dont even rode the bike, yet they just claim their 10 years old SP are in perfect condition because it is the standard procedure and part of the scripts to sell any bikes. They literally read a model script as they can't possibly think and write a new script for every bikes they sell, not trying to be offensive, but bikeshop dealers are usually managed by mechanics with low education. They cant prepare a detailed report of the current health status/history of the bike for hundreds of bikes they are selling, unlike individual direct owners who tends to have a better track of their bike history and some are even to write a full detailed report, more transparent than the government's financial statement.

 

 

Bikeshop dont bother about this as well, saw a poor dude who just passed 2B bought a TZM150, bike comes with 1 week warranty. For the first 1 week, the bike was perfect, but exactly 7 days later, once the warranty ended, the whole clutch system broke down. He thought it was a nice deal until the 8th day. Amateur owners in SG usually donno how to do advanced work to hide your mentioned 'internal leaks within the engine that cannot be seen by the naked eye', while the risk of such incident is not 100% foolproof with direct owners purchase, the likelihood with shops is even higher because the shop dealers have mechanics to do the advanced/dark work to hide the prob. I have witnessed it, experienced it.

 

 

Know shop that did something worse to the above TZM dude. Poor dude.

Coolant seeping into combustion chamber, u confirm cannot rev decently anymore. Remember to at least rev your bike.

 

 

All in all, buying from direct owners can be dangerous and risky too depending on your human skills to judge the person.

Buying from shop is even far far more dangerous as the dealer are much much more experience than you and if he ever decides to chop you, no matter how street smart of a person you are, you will be at the losing hand.

Are you from a bikeshop yourself? lol

If i from bikeshop,I would not start this thread.direct sellers can also go to bikeshops to ask the mech to cover up the problems. No matter buy from who,it's best to send it for an inspection

[guangwei]

i think thats because Duc 916 last time was already rare to begin with, less rich people twenty years ago. and RS250, heck thats a 2-stroker commonly abused, no surprises it doesnt last.

 

but well maybe i am guilty of generalizing. ultimately though, i still think that prices of successfully sold bikes is the indicator, not rarity. and i'd continue thinking so unless someone shows me that indeed in general conti bikes sell for same or lower % when compared to jap, for

 

I would put it the way that, there are more slow depreciating jap bikes than slow depreciating european bikes from a quick look around the used bikes sales section. 20yo Spec 1/2, fireblades bikes still can sell for 2k-3k machine value. And they are everywhere. SP KRR, they are insanely abused in my youth days. My friends abuses it, crash it, and they are still everywhere even tho it halted production 10+ years ago. Put it online for $300 without COE, and they are gone instantly. THey have 200k mileage and still kicking. Can RS250 tank 200k mileage handled by my 18yo friend who self skid on the first day day after he passes 2B?

KR did. He sold his bike in usable conditions.

 

but if u talk about rare unique collectible, maybe european bike have these too.

Edited May 21, 2015 by guangwei

[guangwei]

If i from bikeshop,I would not start this thread.direct sellers can also go to bikeshops to ask the mech to cover up the problems. No matter buy from who,it's best to send it for an inspection

 

judging from your calcuation, im overpricing my r6 severely. my r6 value is near 0 at 8 years old already.

10 years old can might as well give u for free already, or sell u for few hundred kopi money.

Edited May 21, 2015 by guangwei

[mechwira]

I would put it the way that, there are more slow depreciating jap bikes than slow depreciating european bikes from a quick look around the used bikes sales section. 20yo Spec 1/2, fireblades bikes still can sell for 2k-3k machine value. And they are everywhere. SP KRR, they are insanely abused in my youth days. My friends abuses it, crash it, and they are still everywhere even tho it halted production 10+ years ago. Put it online for $300 without COE, and they are gone instantly. THey have 200k mileage and still kicking. Can RS250 tank 200k mileage handled by my 18yo friend who self skid on the first day day after he passes 2B?

KR did. He sold his bike in usable conditions.

 

but if u talk about rare unique collectible, maybe european bike have these too.

 

lets compare equivalents. i have no arguments about how the legendary 2b 2-strokers can still sell today, but i think a conti vs jap discussion requires a comparison of equivalents.

 

Ducati 1199 vs Kawasaki ZX-10R

Honda Africa Twin vs KTM Super Adventure

Ducati Monster vs Yamaha FZ-8

BMW R1200 vs Honda ST1200

Aprilia RS4-125 vs Honda CBR150

 

if we compare a general list of such equivalents, would their secondhand prices show that more japanese makes hold value better than conti makes? like i said, i would be surprised if they do.

Edited May 21, 2015 by mechwira

[guangwei]

Let me make a rough estimate Chart for a 2008 registered R1 of 2 cycles of COE, to explain further what i mean on how the local markets works through stimulation

 

Year 2008, retail price, 28k

Year 2009, 2nd hand market price, 24k (depreciates 4k from its retail price )

year 2010, 2nd hand market price, 20.5k (depreciates 3.5k from its year 2009 price)

year 2011, 2nd hand market price, 17k (depreciates 3k from its 2010 price)

year 2012, 2nd hand market price, 15k (depreciates 2k from 2011 price) [already finished losing status as new bike, depreciation stabilising]

year 2013, 2nd hand market price, 13.85k (depreciates 1.25k from 2012 price)

year 2014, 2hand market price, 12.5k (depreciates 1.35k from 2013 price)

year 2015, 2haand market price, 11.3k (depreciates 1.2k from 2014 price)

year 2016, 2hand market price, 10k (depreciates 1.3k from 2015 price)

year 2017, 2hand market price, 9k (depreciates 1k from 2016 price)

year 2018, 2hand market price, 8k (depreciates 1k) + 6.5k =14.5k

[end of coe renewed, coe cost 6501 for example. value of bike for 2019 gets bonus + 6.5k as a result of boosted COE]

year 2019, 2hand market price 6.5k (COE Boost) + 7.1k (Bike values that depreciates 0.9k from 2018 value of 8k) = 13.6k - (0.65k * n) where n is number of years since COE was renewed, in this case n=1 [Taking into consideration 10 year of COE is worth 6.5k, 1 year loss of COE from 2019 to 2020 is 1/10 * 6.5k = 0.65k] = 12.95k

year 2020, 2hand market price 6.5k (COE Boost) + 6.2k (Bike values that depreciates 0.8k from 2019 value of 7.1k) = 12.7k - 0.65k * n (In this case n=2) = 11.4k

year 2021, 2hand market price 6.5k (COE Boost) + 5.5k (Bike values that depreciates 0.7k from 2020 value of 6.2k) = 12k - 0.65k * n (In this case n=3) = 10.05k

year 2022, 2hand market price 6.5k (COE Boost) + 4.9k (Bike values that depreciates 0.6k from 2021 value of 5.5k) = 11.4k - 0.65k * n (In this case n=4) = 8.8k

year 2023, 2hand market price 6.5k (COE Boost) + 4.4k (Bike values that depreciates 0.5k from 2022 value of 4.9k) = 10.9k - 0.65k * n (In this case n=5) = 7.65k

year 2024, 2hand market price 6.5k (COE Boost) + 3.9k (Bike values that depreciates 0.5k from 2023 value of 4.4k) = 10.4k - 0.65k * n (In this case n=6) = 6.5k

year 2025, 2hand market price 6.5k (COE Boost) + 3.4k (Bike values that depreciates 0.5k from 2024 value of 3.9k) = 9.9k - 0.65k * n (In this case n=7) = 5.35k

year 2026, unlucky owner suddenly realise a major problem occurring in the engine signifying the end of the lifespan of the bike. full overhaul cost few 4k-5k, and its much more than the machine value. decides to scrap the bike. bike deregistered incentive receivable is equal to the coe value. say coe ends at 2028. coe available is 2/10 of what i have hence (2/10 * 6.5k) = 1.3k. owner receive 1.3k kopi money for scrapping bike and returning the unused coe to bidding pool. machine value of rough estimate, 3.5k is lost for the loss of vehicle.

 

End of bike lifespan.

Does not take into consideration the fluctuation of COE value and changes in the popularity of bikes.

 

Go dig around used bike section for reference it will explain to u why crazy people are selling their bike at insane prices that you do not deem normal and look iillogical to u.

[mechwira]

 

Go dig around used bike section for reference it will explain to u why crazy people are selling their bike at insane prices that you do not deem normal and look iillogical to u.

 

sorry, err.... this one is reference the discussion between the two of us of conti vs jap or reference your discussion with teambhp?

[guangwei]

sorry, err.... this one is reference the discussion between the two of us of conti vs jap or reference your discussion with teambhp?

 

teambhp

 

 

lets compare equivalents. i have no arguments about how the legendary 2b 2-strokers can still sell today, but i think a conti vs jap discussion requires a comparison of equivalents.

 

Ducati 1199 vs Kawasaki ZX-10R

Honda Africa Twin vs KTM Super Adventure

Ducati Monster vs Yamaha FZ-8

BMW R1200 vs Honda ST1200

Aprilia RS4-125 vs Honda CBR150

 

if we compare a general list of such equivalents, would their secondhand prices show that more japanese makes hold value better than conti makes? like i said, i would be surprised if they do.

 

Some of you comparisom are the most popular european bike with the less popular jap bikes. of course most european bike listed in this case would have a better rate of depreciation. you should compare popular jap bikes with popular europe bike for a fair fight or junkie euro bike with junkie jap bike.

 

Ducati 1199 vs YZF-R1 2011

Aprilia RS4-125 vs Yamaha YZF-R125

 

 

However it seems like your definition of depreciation is by comparing value depreciation, while what i defines depreciation is not just value depreciation, but overall depreciation that includes popularity depreciation, existence depreciation and value depreciation.

Lets compare the 4 listed bikes in my example where popular jap bikes clashes with popular european bike.

After 10 years old from since they are registered, the YZF r1 and yzf r125 remain highly demand, easily sold bikes.

the rs125 & ducati 1199 moves to the collectibles as they becomes rarer and rarer as more people scrap their bikes by the end of first coe cycle. However take note that enthu collectors are insufficient in population quantity to represent the functionality of the market.

 

Would u see on the street a ducati 1199 for another 10 years down the road? 2nd hand buyers for general use would appreciates the 2011 r1 definitely at the year 2025, even if they are getting it for track purposes. maybe if u can somehow preserve the ducati 1199 for 10 years down the road, monetary value would be rocket high to certain rare few exceptional people and thats it that cannot represent anything.

The less popular european bikes literally becomes junks if they failed to convert themselves into rare collectibles. I dont know enough about less popular old europe bike because i dont even saw them on the market, but u see weird cb125 appearing out of nowhere for sale still not deemed fully depreciated in the market but u dun see the retro husqvarna for more than once a year, unless you are an odd collectibles like 1 in a million of population kind and can't represent a market, only then u would appreciate a useless junk for ur museum..

 

the market of old jap bikes is way way bigger than the market of old euro bike, which have barely any sign of existence. also once u decides to scrap your bike, the bike is depreciated to a monetary value of $0 instantly in strict financial terms. the popular euro bikes listed that fails to survives to the collectibles state suffer from this.

 

meaning to say, if u keep a hp4 for general and track use for 10 years, you are bond to lose more money than if u keep a r1 of similar age for similar use for 10 years.

Edited May 21, 2015 by guangwei

[mechwira]

 

 

However it seems like your definition of depreciation is by comparing value depreciation, while what i defines depreciation is not just value depreciation, but overall depreciation that includes popularity depreciation, existence depreciation and value depreciation.

 

ok. i will admit that all this while i have considered only monetary value, i.e purely how much cold hard cash you can get as second hand when comparing the two makes. to be fair though, when people around the world say that conti models have lower depreciation, i believe they also mean purely monetary value.

 

if you talk about popularity and existence etc etc, i guess in a sense if we consider only singapore, perhaps it could be true of jap makes.

 

possibly because in most western markets, owners are skilled enough and have the freedom to mod, repair and rebuild their bikes, contis hold better value. they say jap engines last far longer than western engines, but when the jap engine is done, its done; whereas western engines can be rebuilt. well, that plus the not-so-easily-explained perception that old western vehicles are more stylo than old jap vehicles. but in singapore with more restrictive mod regulations and far less owners with the time and skills for properly caring and rebuilding western engines, beyond ten years old they'd rather stick to the reliable japanese. maybe.

[mechwira]

 

meaning to say, if u keep a hp4 for general and track use for 10 years, you are bond to lose more money than if u keep a r1 of similar age for similar use for 10 years.

 

purely on the assumption that the HP4 is done and cannot go on whereas the R1 can go on another ten, sure. if this assumption holds true which i am not fully convinced. but well you're entitled to your opinion.

[guangwei]

purely on the assumption that the HP4 is done and cannot go on whereas the R1 can go on another ten, sure. if this assumption holds true which i am not fully convinced. but well you're entitled to your opinion.

 

I had not saw a s1000rr with 100k+ mileage on the market before but i saw r1 with near 200k mileage already. im quite sure s1000rr dont survive to 200k without being near fully depreciated.

[mechwira]

I had not saw a s1000rr with 100k+ mileage on the market before but i saw r1 with near 200k mileage already. im quite sure s1000rr dont survive to 200k without being near fully depreciated.

 

i suppose we have reduced our discussion to one last disagreement.

 

if a conti bike cannot last beyond ten years, whereas jap makes can, therefore mathematically the depreciation of the conti bike over its entire shorter lifespan would be higher as compared to the depreciation of the jap bike over its entire longer lifespan.

 

mathematically, the above would be correct.

 

i still diagree on the 'if', but well i suppose thats fine.

[guangwei]

i suppose we have reduced our discussion to one last disagreement.

 

if a conti bike cannot last beyond ten years, whereas jap makes can, therefore mathematically the depreciation of the conti bike over its entire shorter lifespan would be higher as compared to the depreciation of the jap bike over its entire longer lifespan.

 

mathematically, the above would be correct.

 

i still diagree on the 'if', but well i suppose thats fine.

at least for sg, that 'if' applies, or unless u prove it wrong and market your bike to change the perception of euro bike?

=]

[Jehuty]

All bikes can live very long if maintained properly. All. That includes your Italians, German and Japanese bikes. You never maintain your cheap LC135 also it won't last that long. Its mindset. It's more expensive to keep a poorly maintained Jap than a properly maintained Conti.

 

Anyway I think it's silly to buy a 10k 15yr high mileage old bike with anything less than a fully overhauled engine meaning new sleeves, pistons etc.

 

With 10k I could get a brand new 2B bike or even down payment for a new class 2 bike of any make both of which would be most likely more reliable.

 

Resale value is all about assumptions and demand according to those assumptions. Most people assume jap bikes are more reliable therefor you can sell one at value even if there are no more spares, it's in poor condition vs a lesser known conti like let's say old Ktm even if it's low mileage.

Edited May 23, 2015 by Jehuty

[Jehuty]

ok. i will admit that all this while i have considered only monetary value, i.e purely how much cold hard cash you can get as second hand when comparing the two makes. to be fair though, when people around the world say that conti models have lower depreciation, i believe they also mean purely monetary value.

 

if you talk about popularity and existence etc etc, i guess in a sense if we consider only singapore, perhaps it could be true of jap makes.

 

possibly because in most western markets, owners are skilled enough and have the freedom to mod, repair and rebuild their bikes, contis hold better value. they say jap engines last far longer than western engines, but when the jap engine is done, its done; whereas western engines can be rebuilt. well, that plus the not-so-easily-explained perception that old western vehicles are more stylo than old jap vehicles. but in singapore with more restrictive mod regulations and far less owners with the time and skills for properly caring and rebuilding western engines, beyond ten years old they'd rather stick to the reliable japanese. maybe.

 

Because they don't have COE, they can keep their vehicles forever. If no COE it would be worth it to get something fixed, with COE might as well trash it and get new. Wish our govt had COE on themselves

[babysky]

I think the seller now are making used of the current coe. I just did a transfer for a class 2a bike with coe until 2023. Brought it for 3.6k. Sure there is some minor maintainenc that needs to be performed, which bike don't. But my suggestion is look slowly. You will sure come across a reasonable seller. Don't let those free loader gain the advantages.

[teambhp]

I think the seller now are making used of the current coe. I just did a transfer for a class 2a bike with coe until 2023. Brought it for 3.6k. Sure there is some minor maintainenc that needs to be performed, which bike don't. But my suggestion is look slowly. You will sure come across a reasonable seller. Don't let those free loader gain the advantages.

When I post in the seller thread that his bike is expensive, I got a warning from admin. Now I can only keep my mouth shut. You guys dun follow my mistake

[kzone]

I think the seller now are making used of the current coe. I just did a transfer for a class 2a bike with coe until 2023. Brought it for 3.6k. Sure there is some minor maintainenc that needs to be performed, which bike don't. But my suggestion is look slowly. You will sure come across a reasonable seller. Don't let those free loader gain the advantages.

 

it's not free loader lah... of cos u have to sell things at the current market price n not based on the various factors instead of just looking at depreciation n original buying price. this is common sense

[zyrofillica]

Since you all listing high depre bikes. can i list my low depre bike for sale?

 

about $900/yr R6! please buy:cheer:

http://www.singaporebikes.com/forums/showthread.php/457141-low-mileage-2003-r6-CHEAP!-COE-2023-MARCH?p=8342018&highlight=#post8342018

[kzone]

Since you all listing high depre bikes. can i list my low depre bike for sale?

 

about $900/yr R6! please buy:cheer:

http://www.singaporebikes.com/forums/showthread.php/457141-low-mileage-2003-r6-CHEAP!-COE-2023-MARCH?p=8342018&highlight=#post8342018

 

yeah, great buy since only 35K mileage. Like a 2 year old bike instead of 12 year old!

[teambhp]

yeah, great buy since only 35K mileage. Like a 2 year old bike instead of 12 year old!

Such an old bike.. Who wanna buy?might have to spend even more to repair. Caution words for all... Never believe seller tell you bike in good condition. Always send to a workshop for inspection

[kzone]

Such an old bike.. Who wanna buy?might have to spend even more to repair. Caution words for all... Never believe seller tell you bike in good condition. Always send to a workshop for inspection

 

old bikes, no prob. sure got ppl who wants if at the right price but caveat emptor as usual

[zyrofillica]

Such an old bike.. Who wanna buy?might have to spend even more to repair. Caution words for all... Never believe seller tell you bike in good condition. Always send to a workshop for inspection

 

:pity:why you shoot me down. Now no one wants to buy my terrible bike. Do you only ride brand new bikes?