Sian!! Higher prices for big bikes

[kzone]

Question here is, will it stay, will it drop further, or is this just like pre-election GST pack, and then it shoots back up like MRT and Bus fare after election season as usual.

 

No one knows for sure but based on the upcoming changes and bidding trends, I would say it would go down... not to the level u like but go down still.

 

Well let's see... everyone have their own thoughts n theories.

[kaiq]

The current price is still very high. I am more interested to see when will LTA react again. So far, they are doing it very slowly and whatever they did proved furtile.

 

Root cause of the problem? They should have known it all the time.

 

Now it's a game of balance - the displeasure of the people vs the profit through sale of COE.

[kzone]

oooppsss......

[kzone]

The current price is still very high. I am more interested to see when will LTA react again. So far, they are doing it very slowly and whatever they did proved furtile.

 

Yet ppl are still willing to pay for it... so why would we expect any drastic actions? They have already stopped the bleeding to the open Cat from May. How can you say its futile when it hasn't even started? This latest change will finally stop the shrinking bike population in sg... more bike COEs for us.

[reize]

Yet ppl are still willing to pay for it... so why would we expect any drastic actions? They have already stopped the bleeding to the open Cat from May. How can you say its futile when it hasn't even started? This latest change will finally stop the shrinking bike population in sg... more bike COEs for us.

 

Stopping the shrinkage doesn't mean "more bike COEs for us." They can just say, oh we stopped removing bike COE, gao tim liao. We don't need to add new quota for Cat D, can just recycle from scrapped bikes. End up total population of motorcycles in Singapore stays the same, but new riders come in all the time.

 

We don't know yet, but it's a huge possibility.

[kzone]

Stopping the shrinkage doesn't mean "more bike COEs for us." They can just say, oh we stopped removing bike COE, gao tim liao. We don't need to add new quota for Cat D, can just recycle from scrapped bikes. End up total population of motorcycles in Singapore stays the same, but new riders come in all the time.

 

We don't know yet, but it's a huge possibility.

 

What u mean u dont know yet? There is definitely more COE as previously some COE need to go to open Cat while now (fm May) no need liao... In fact LTA already publish numbers for May to July... Its more than 30% higher than for Feb to Apr.

[reize]

What u mean u dont know yet? There is definitely more COE as previously some COE need to go to open Cat while now (fm May) no need liao... In fact LTA already publish numbers for May to July... Its more than 30% higher than for Feb to Apr.

 

No there is not. Quota alloted for next quarter =/= Total Absolute Population =/= Planned increase. There is going to be 700 + more COE alloted to Cat D in the next quarter but the vast majority of it is coming from deregistered vehicles. That is the problem I'm talking about.

 

The planned vehicle increase for 2017 for cars is 374 (Cat A + B) but motorcycles (Cat D) is only 89.

 

For the past 10 years total motorcycle population has been thumbed down at roughly 140,000+, but cars have been going up from 470,000 to over 600,000 at the end of last year.

 

I'm sure some of the deregistered motorcycle COE also comes with riders who are quitting, but I think there are more new riders coming in to the scene than leaving. So all this increase in quota you are seeing is just a short term measure, in the long term it's highly likely we're still going to get burnt by lack of supply if LTA refuses to increase the total population cap on motorcycles.

 

Sources : https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/MVP01-1_MVP_by_type.pdf

https://www.lta.gov.sg/data/apps/news/press/2017/20170412_2Q2017COEQuota(002).pdf

https://www.lta.gov.sg/data/apps/news/press/2017/20170119_MonthlyCOEquota_Feb-Apr_17_AnnexA.pdf

http://coe.sgcharts.com/

[kzone]

the 30% increase in COE supply is accurate.

and yes, the formula u stated is correct. the only change come May is that motorbikes will no longer need to contribute to open cat COE. this is a big change that the biking community has been lobbying for years. As a result of this change, we will no longer see a shrinkage of COE supply and bike population.

[kzone]

If u look at the distribution of successful bids on LTA website. 80% to 90% of car bidders only bid

 

Accurately predicted COE will go up to about 8K

 

how much will COE drop today?

 

Accurate again in predicting COE will drop.

 

So how about today? It will drop for sure... so let's see by how much. It will test $6xxx but likely to touch 7K

[kzone]

n its down again... by more than 10%!

[reize]

Accurately predicted COE will go up to about 8K

 

 

 

Accurate again in predicting COE will drop.

 

So how about today? It will drop for sure... so let's see by how much. It will test $6xxx but likely to touch 7K

 

I think time to set up temple and give out 4D numbers.

[kzone]

I think time to set up temple and give out 4D numbers.

 

The signs are clear bro... LTA already announce the new measures and u can look at past stats as well. Next bidding should fall further but today's drop might make some people go down to showroom to book bikes increasing demand so likely to hover around 6.5K to 7K. We should see further notable drops maybe 3 bids fm now

[kawarides]

Either way they'll win.

COE down more bikes purchase = More ARF collected

[kzone]

Either way they'll win.

COE down more bikes purchase = More ARF collected

 

number of new bikes purchased depend on number of COEs released, not price of COE.

[ocping]

They should really gut speculation on bike COEs by either requiring bidder to only resell at LTA price or requiring higher refundable deposit (say, $2000). If the COE is registered straight away to an actual person then no deposit is required.

[MR BIKER]

Many suggestion is put but LTA deaf

[kzone]

requiring higher refundable deposit (say, $2000)

 

this 1 got chance to be introduced.

[kaiq]

Motorcycle COE is already non-transferable? Then why ppl say Cat D COE is transferable?

Did I make some mistake somewhere?

 

Sources:

https://www.onemotoring.com.sg/content/onemotoring/en/lta_information_guidelines/buy_a_new_vehicle/bid_coe.html

http://www.straitstimes.com/lifestyle/why-is-motorcycle-coe-defying-gravity

[kzone]

Motorcycle COE is already non-transferable? Then why ppl say Cat D COE is transferable?

Did I make some mistake somewhere?

 

Sources:

https://www.onemotoring.com.sg/content/onemotoring/en/lta_information_guidelines/buy_a_new_vehicle/bid_coe.html

http://www.straitstimes.com/lifestyle/why-is-motorcycle-coe-defying-gravity

 

When I bought a new bike, the shop told me they have 2 COEs at xxx price if I want to use. If I take that up, the bike will originally be registered under the shop name then immediately transferred to me on the same day. On the bike log, the number of transfer will be 1.

 

If I opt to bid my own COE, then the COE & bike will be registered under my name from the start and the on the bike log, the number of transfer will be 0.

 

I guess that's how the shops work to overcome the "COE non transferable" rules.

[reize]

When I bought a new bike, the shop told me they have 2 COEs at xxx price if I want to use. If I take that up, the bike will originally be registered under the shop name then immediately transferred to me on the same day. On the bike log, the number of transfer will be 1.

 

If I opt to bid my own COE, then the COE & bike will be registered under my name from the start and the on the bike log, the number of transfer will be 0.

 

I guess that's how the shops work to overcome the "COE non transferable" rules.

 

Yea, I think when they say "Non-Transferable" It actually means the TCOE (Temporary COE) and not the actual COE tied to the vehicle. Once the TCOE is used to register the vehicle, it becomes a full COE, and I think that is not bound by the no transfer rule. At least that's what reading the OneMotoring page tells me.

[kzone]

Yea, I think when they say "Non-Transferable" It actually means the TCOE (Temporary COE) and not the actual COE tied to the vehicle. Once the TCOE is used to register the vehicle, it becomes a full COE, and I think that is not bound by the no transfer rule. At least that's what reading the OneMotoring page tells me.

 

yeah... which is fair (for once)

[kaiq]

If it's referring to kzone's method, then car dealers can also do that, which renders the below statement untrue.

 

I was reading this which I don't understand:

 

"Furthermore, some motorcycle dealers may well be hoarding COEs to corner the market. Since motorbike certificates are transferable, dealers can sell certificates which they do not need at a profit.

 

The authorities made car COEs non-transferable two decades ago to eradicate this form of speculative activity which drove car COEs to more than $110,000 in 1994."

 

It seems to mean "transfer of unused COE to another dealer".

[Keynes]

i hope my dream comes true. in singapore, we actually dont need high powered, big cc bikes. just your average 600cc to 800c is suffice. even going malaysia, we cant really speed. 110km/hr. if bm, hd , and all the bikes companies want their singapore market, they should downsize their bikes. make a mini version of the GSA. 800cc using the same engine for their 800cc bikes BUT with the same shape and shaft drive but of course slightly lower and lighter.

honda also can follow suit. making a bronzewing ---- exactly like their goldwing but 750cc to 800cc with shaft drive. it has been done before in the 80s and 70s

anyway, just a dream because YOU KNOW WHO will wake me up from that dream because they will say, oh no because now you order so many of these 700cc bikes, it has now become a luxury item and many people are bidding for the coe. and guess what . we will introduce a PARF like cars.

 

so its a vicious cycle until something snaps

 

Hi Mr Biker,

 

Long time no see.

 

Paiseh need to disagree with you this time.

 

I worked in a bus spare parts company before and I know the difference in price of engines of different cc.

 

We are looking at 800 cc and 1800 cc engines, they don't differ by much in terms of price, my take is the difference of maybe $1500 to $2000.

 

And when we are looking at smaller cc engine, the transmission needs to be changed too, maybe the smaller tx is cheaper by say $500.

 

And with the luxurious items removed, eg bronzewing we remove its heated grips, seats, radio etc but retaining its shaft drive, chassis and structure, the OMV of the bikes might drop only by $3k.

 

So with 100% ARF, the bike OMV will be $6k less.

 

Now let say the original goldwing with new ARF costs $70,000 from $59,750 (old ARF, $7k COE), an increase of $10,250 (assuming GW OMV is $20k, the new ARF will cost it to be $10250 more).

 

So bronzewing will cost $64k ($70k minus $3k).

 

The price difference is too small to lure buyers to buy the bronze wing.

 

More importantly, the small volume (I assume only Singapore wants bronzewing) may prompt the manufacturer not to lower down the price of the Bronzewing at all. So both Gold Wing and Bronze Wing cost $70k, which one would you buy?

 

The only consolation I think, is saving the road tax and probably petrol.

[Keynes]

If it's referring to kzone's method, then car dealers can also do that, which renders the below statement untrue.

 

I was reading this which I don't understand:

 

"Furthermore, some motorcycle dealers may well be hoarding COEs to corner the market. Since motorbike certificates are transferable, dealers can sell certificates which they do not need at a profit.

 

The authorities made car COEs non-transferable two decades ago to eradicate this form of speculative activity which drove car COEs to more than $110,000 in 1994."

 

It seems to mean "transfer of unused COE to another dealer".

 

I think both bikes and cars COE cannot be transferred.

 

But the deposit for car COE is $10,000, bike is $200.

 

So let's say car shops buy COE in bulk and resell them to car buyers, if no car buyers, they lose $10,000 deposit after the COE's expiry date (six months) but the same situation will only cost the bike shops $200.

 

Also, bike shop can register the bike using the shop's name then transfer it to the bike buyer, then the number of transfer will be 01 instead of 00 (reflected in the computer screen), and a transfer fee of $11 must be paid, bike buyers usually CANNOT WAIT too long (more than a month) for their bikes, so they buy COE from bike shops at a profit if they cannot get a COE by the first attempt (bidding exercise).

 

Car transfer also cost $11 but many car owners are very particular on the number of transfer being 01 instead of 00, so many potential car buyers don't like this arrangement and most car buyers CAN WAIT 3 to 6 months for a car.

 

Bike shops can sell unused COEs at a profit provided the COE's prices are going up, if going down, they will sell at a loss. But then looking at the deposit of $200, they would rather let the COEs expire than to sell it at a loss of more than $200.

 

So the crux of the problem is, the bike COE deposit is too low. Since the COE prices is abut $6k, the deposit should be at $5k, so bike shop will not buy COE in bulk then sell at profit.

 

But then as customers, we have the biggest power. If bike shop sell you COE at a obscend profit, just walk away and look for another shop. I was not successful in my first try of bidding my bike COE and I then decided to buy the COE from a shop, they DID NOT make a single cent profit from the COE, just ask me to pay $11, because they know that if they do, they are going to lose me as a customer.

[kzone]

The signs are clear bro... LTA already announce the new measures and u can look at past stats as well. Next bidding should fall further...

 

n down it goes! 6.3K